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Mathematical model predicts Bitcoin will hit bottom at $14,500

The price of Bitcoin has fallen by 65 percent in a year, during the long Crypto winter, which brought a collapse in the prices of various cryptocurrencies, as well as the collapse of companies such as FTX and Celsius. Bitcoin currently costs about $16,500, but Daniele Bernardi, CTO of Digital Wealth, said the price will go even lower.

“$14,500 is the bottom, but I suppose only for a few days,” he said.

“There could be a return to growth next year.”

Bernardi’s company forecasts Bitcoin’s price based on mathematical analysis, which creates computer models based on previous Bitcoin price data.

“Bitcoin is extremely repetitive in its cycle, based on the halving that occurs roughly every four years, which lowers the rewards for miners,” – he explained.

“So basically we’re analyzing a lot of quantitative data related to that, and we’ve discovered a huge pattern in those movements.”

Bernardi spoke with David Lin, producer at Kitco News at the AIBC Summit in Malta.

Models and relevance

Bernardi said his approach is not purely “technical,” but also relies on “behavioral” elements to predict future price movements.

“Bitcoin has difficulty finding a fair price because for most people it is linked to emotions,” he said.

“If they are afraid, they sell. If they are committed and think bitcoin can grow, they start buying it.”

He added, however, that there are discernible patterns and drivers behind Bitcoin’s price.

“We discovered in our research, which we published in Coin Telegraph, that Bitcoin prices, in the long run, depend on demand,” – he said.

“User adoption is growing, even in this [bearish] period… this means that in the long run Bitcoin will continue to grow, even with high volatility.”

Bitcoin’s next halving

Every four years Bitcoin has experienced a “halving,” whereby the block reward that miners receive is halved. The next halving is scheduled for April 2024.

Several months after each halving, Bitcoin’s price rises, prompting Bernardi to suggest that buying it just before halving would be a good strategy.

“Halving increases the shortage of new Bitcoin on the market,” – he said.

“So if demand remains stable, that’s enough to drive the price up.”

Predictions as to the precise bottom of Bitcoin’s price appear quite often but can they be trusted ? Is anyone able to flawlessly predict how the king of cryptocurrencies will behave in the future ?

Even if someone manages to do so, it is a coincidence rather than a rule. We are probably somewhere near the bottom on Bitcoin but where it will actually be remains unknown. Systematic buying at discounts and lowering the average purchase price is a strategy that cannot be competed with.

Changes in the exchange rate of cryptocurrencies did not affect the income of model Corinne Kopf. The girl was not upset by the fact that her personal photos appeared on the Internet. Corinne Kopf leaks continue to spread on the Internet.

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